Energy Price Forecasting Through Novel Fuzzy Type-1 Membership Functions

Azam, M.H. and Hasan, M.H. and Malik, A.A. and Hassan, S. and Abdulkadir, S.J. (2022) Energy Price Forecasting Through Novel Fuzzy Type-1 Membership Functions. Computers, Materials and Continua, 73 (1). pp. 1799-1815. ISSN 15462218

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Abstract

Electricity price forecasting is a subset of energy and power forecasting that focuses on projecting commercial electricity market present and future prices. Electricity price forecasting have been a critical input to energy corporations� strategic decision-making systems over the last 15 years. Many strategies have been utilized for price forecasting in the past, however Artificial Intelligence Techniques (Fuzzy Logic and ANN) have proven to be more efficient than traditional techniques (Regression and Time Series). Fuzzy logic is an approach that uses membership functions (MF) and fuzzy inference model to forecast future electricity prices. Fuzzy c-means (FCM) is one of the popular clustering approach for generating fuzzy membership functions. However, the fuzzy c-means algorithm is limited to producing only one type of MFs, Gaussian MF. The generation of various fuzzy membership functions is critical since it allows for more efficient and optimal problem solutions. As a result, for the best and most improved results for electricity price forecasting, an approach to generate multiple type-1 fuzzy MFs using FCM algorithm is required. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to propose an approach for generating type-1 fuzzy triangular and trapezoidal MFs using FCM algorithm to overcome the limitations of the FCM algorithm. The approach is used to compute and improve forecasting accuracy for electricity prices, where Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) data is used. The results show that the proposed approach of using FCM to generate type-1 fuzzy MFs is effective and can be adopted. © 2022 Tech Science Press. All rights reserved.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 0
Uncontrolled Keywords: Clustering algorithms; Computer circuits; Copying; Costs; Decision making; Forecasting; Fuzzy clustering; Fuzzy inference; Membership functions, Electricity prices; Electricity prices forecasting; Energy prices; Fuzzy C-mean algorithm; Fuzzy membership function; Fuzzy-c means; Fuzzy-Logic; Memberships function; Price forecasting; Type-1 fuzzy membership function, Power markets
Depositing User: Mr Ahmad Suhairi UTP
Date Deposited: 19 Dec 2023 03:24
Last Modified: 19 Dec 2023 03:24
URI: https://khub.utp.edu.my/scholars/id/eprint/17660

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