A novel fuzzy linear regression slidingwindow GARCH model for time-series forecasting

Hanapi, A.L.M. and Othman, M. and Sokkalingam, R. and Ramli, N. and Husin, A. and Vasant, P. (2020) A novel fuzzy linear regression slidingwindow GARCH model for time-series forecasting. Applied Sciences (Switzerland), 10 (6). ISSN 20763417

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Abstract

Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) is one of the most popular models for time-series forecasting. The GARCH model uses a maximum likelihood method for parameter estimation. For the likelihood method to work, there should be a known and specific distribution. However, due to uncertainties in time-series data, a specific distribution is indeterminable. The GARCH model is also unable to capture the influence of each variance in the observation because the calculation of the long-run average variance only considers the series in its entirety, hence the information on dierent eects of the variances in each observation is disregarded. Therefore, in this study, a novel forecasting model dubbed a fuzzy linear regression sliding window GARCH (FLR-FSWGARCH) model was proposed; a fuzzy linear regression was combined in GARCH to estimate parameters and a fuzzy sliding window variance was developed to estimate the weight of a forecast. The proposed model promotes consistency and symmetry in the parameter estimation and forecasting, which in turn increases the accuracy of forecasts. Two datasets were used for evaluation purposes and the result of the proposed model produced forecasts that were almost similar to the actual data and outperformed existing models. The proposed model was significantly fitted and reliable for time-series forecasting. © 2020 by the authors.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 6
Depositing User: Mr Ahmad Suhairi UTP
Date Deposited: 10 Nov 2023 03:27
Last Modified: 10 Nov 2023 03:27
URI: https://khub.utp.edu.my/scholars/id/eprint/13394

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