Artificial neural network based production forecasting for a hydrocarbon reservoir under water injection

NEGASH, B.M. and YAW, A.D. (2020) Artificial neural network based production forecasting for a hydrocarbon reservoir under water injection. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 47 (2). pp. 383-392. ISSN 18763804

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Abstract

As the conventional prediction methods for production of waterflooding reservoirs have some drawbacks, a production forecasting model based on artificial neural network was proposed, the simulation process by this method was presented, and some examples were illustrated. A workflow that involves a physics-based extraction of features was proposed for fluid production forecasting to improve the prediction effect. The Bayesian regularization algorithm was selected as the training algorithm of the model. This algorithm, although taking longer time, can better generalize oil, gas and water production data sets. The model was evaluated by calculating mean square error and determination coefficient, drawing error distribution histogram and the cross-plot between simulation data and verification data etc. The model structure was trained, validated and tested with 90 of the historical data, and blindly evaluated using the remaining. The predictive model consumes minimal information and computational cost and is capable of predicting fluid production rate with a coefficient of determination of more than 0.9, which has the simulation results consistent with the practical data. © 2020 Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, PetroChina

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 52
Uncontrolled Keywords: algorithm; artificial neural network; error analysis; forecasting method; hydrocarbon reservoir; numerical model; reservoir characterization; steam injection
Depositing User: Mr Ahmad Suhairi UTP
Date Deposited: 10 Nov 2023 03:27
Last Modified: 10 Nov 2023 03:27
URI: https://khub.utp.edu.my/scholars/id/eprint/13284

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