eprintid: 9609
rev_number: 2
eprint_status: archive
userid: 1
dir: disk0/00/00/96/09
datestamp: 2023-11-09 16:36:15
lastmod: 2023-11-09 16:36:15
status_changed: 2023-11-09 16:29:24
type: conference_item
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Mohamad Hanapi, A.L.
creators_name: Othman, M.
creators_name: Sokkalingam, R.
creators_name: Sakidin, H.
title: Developed A Hybrid Sliding Window and GARCH Model for Forecasting of Crude Palm Oil Prices in Malaysia
ispublished: pub
keywords: Benchmarking; Costs; Economics; Forecasting; Mean square error; Statistical tests, Accurate modeling; Economic activities; Forecasting accuracy; Forecasting performance; Malaysian palm oil boards; Mean percentage; Original series; Variance calculations, Palm oil
note: cited By 7; Conference of 5th International Conference on Fundamental and Applied Sciences, ICFAS 2018 ; Conference Date: 13 August 2018 Through 15 August 2018; Conference Code:142772
abstract: The increase of crude palm oil prices can significantly affect the worldwide economic activities. Therefore, an accurate model to forecast the crude palm oil prices is crucial so that necessary precautionary steps can be taken. In this study, a hybrid between Sliding Window and GARCH model was proposed to improve the forecasting accuracy of crude palm oil prices series. In this model, sliding window partitions is used to aggregate / cluster the original series into several number of constitutive series while GARCH model is utilized to forecast prices based on the selected window to complete variance calculation. A dataset of crude palm oil prices from Malaysian Palm Oil Board was used to test the performance of the proposed model. Direct application of GARCH model was used as a benchmark for effectiveness measurement with the proposed model by comparing mean percentage of absolute error and mean square error. The result has shown that the proposed hybrid sliding window and GARCH model demonstrates better forecasting performance than single GARCH model. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
date: 2018
publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
official_url: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85058216010&doi=10.1088%2f1742-6596%2f1123%2f1%2f012029&partnerID=40&md5=f0355e01d8c7652f6588a0b5cc2eb151
id_number: 10.1088/1742-6596/1123/1/012029
full_text_status: none
publication: Journal of Physics: Conference Series
volume: 1123
number: 1
refereed: TRUE
issn: 17426588
citation:   Mohamad Hanapi, A.L. and Othman, M. and Sokkalingam, R. and Sakidin, H.  (2018) Developed A Hybrid Sliding Window and GARCH Model for Forecasting of Crude Palm Oil Prices in Malaysia.  In: UNSPECIFIED.