eprintid: 6431
rev_number: 2
eprint_status: archive
userid: 1
dir: disk0/00/00/64/31
datestamp: 2023-11-09 16:18:13
lastmod: 2023-11-09 16:18:13
status_changed: 2023-11-09 16:06:03
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Hassan, S.
creators_name: Khosravi, A.
creators_name: Jaafar, J.
title: Examining performance of aggregation algorithms for neural network-based electricity demand forecasting
ispublished: pub
keywords: Aggregation algorithms; Electricity demand forecasting; Electricity load; Network-based; Neural network ensembles, Forecasting
note: cited By 43
abstract: The aim of this research is to examine the efficiency of different aggregation algorithms to the forecasts obtained from individual neural network (NN) models in an ensemble. In this study an ensemble of 100 NN models are constructed with a heterogeneous architecture. The outputs from NN models are combined by three different aggregation algorithms. These aggregation algorithms comprise of a simple average, trimmed mean, and a Bayesian model averaging. These methods are utilized with certain modifications and are employed on the forecasts obtained from all individual NN models. The output of the aggregation algorithms is analyzed and compared with the individual NN models used in NN ensemble and with a Naive approach. Thirty-minutes interval electricity demand data from Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the New York Independent System Operator's web site (NYISO) are used in the empirical analysis. It is observed that the aggregation algorithm perform better than many of the individual NN models. In comparison with the Naive approach, the aggregation algorithms exhibit somewhat better forecasting performance. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
date: 2015
publisher: Elsevier Ltd
official_url: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84907755879&doi=10.1016%2fj.ijepes.2014.08.025&partnerID=40&md5=29a4cada6d55259477ea44336663b025
id_number: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2014.08.025
full_text_status: none
publication: International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
volume: 64
pagerange: 1098-1105
refereed: TRUE
issn: 01420615
citation:   Hassan, S. and Khosravi, A. and Jaafar, J.  (2015) Examining performance of aggregation algorithms for neural network-based electricity demand forecasting.  International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 64.  pp. 1098-1105.  ISSN 01420615