TY  - JOUR
N2  - The aim of this research is to examine the efficiency of different aggregation algorithms to the forecasts obtained from individual neural network (NN) models in an ensemble. In this study an ensemble of 100 NN models are constructed with a heterogeneous architecture. The outputs from NN models are combined by three different aggregation algorithms. These aggregation algorithms comprise of a simple average, trimmed mean, and a Bayesian model averaging. These methods are utilized with certain modifications and are employed on the forecasts obtained from all individual NN models. The output of the aggregation algorithms is analyzed and compared with the individual NN models used in NN ensemble and with a Naive approach. Thirty-minutes interval electricity demand data from Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the New York Independent System Operator's web site (NYISO) are used in the empirical analysis. It is observed that the aggregation algorithm perform better than many of the individual NN models. In comparison with the Naive approach, the aggregation algorithms exhibit somewhat better forecasting performance. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
ID  - scholars6431
Y1  - 2015///
VL  - 64
KW  - Aggregation algorithms; Electricity demand forecasting; Electricity load; Network-based; Neural network ensembles
KW  -  Forecasting
AV  - none
SP  - 1098
UR  - https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84907755879&doi=10.1016%2fj.ijepes.2014.08.025&partnerID=40&md5=29a4cada6d55259477ea44336663b025
A1  - Hassan, S.
A1  - Khosravi, A.
A1  - Jaafar, J.
PB  - Elsevier Ltd
SN  - 01420615
N1  - cited By 43
JF  - International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
TI  - Examining performance of aggregation algorithms for neural network-based electricity demand forecasting
EP  - 1105
ER  -