eprintid: 2614
rev_number: 2
eprint_status: archive
userid: 1
dir: disk0/00/00/26/14
datestamp: 2023-11-09 15:50:51
lastmod: 2023-11-09 15:50:51
status_changed: 2023-11-09 15:43:54
type: conference_item
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Khosravi, A.
creators_name: Nahavandi, S.
creators_name: Creighton, D.
creators_name: Jaafar, J.
title: Wind farm power uncertainty quantification using a mean-variance estimation method
ispublished: pub
keywords: Australia; Confidence levels; Data sets; Estimation methods; Mean variance; Neural network model; Non-differentiable; Parametric method; Prediction interval; Simulated annealing method; Training methods; Uncertainty; Uncertainty quantifications; Wind farm, Cost functions; Electric utilities; Estimation; Neural networks; Simulated annealing, Wind power
note: cited By 15; Conference of 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012 ; Conference Date: 30 October 2012 Through 2 November 2012; Conference Code:95313
abstract: This paper proposes an innovative optimized parametric method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for uncertainty quantification. The mean-variance estimation (MVE) method employs two separate neural network (NN) models to estimate the mean and variance of targets. A new training method is developed in this study that adjusts parameters of NN models through minimization of a PI-based cost functions. A simulated annealing method is applied for minimization of the nonlinear non-differentiable cost function. The performance of the proposed method for PI construction is examined using monthly data sets taken from a wind farm in Australia. PIs for the wind farm power generation are constructed with five confidence levels between 50 and 90. Demonstrated results indicate that valid PIs constructed using the optimized MVE method have a quality much better than the traditional MVE-based PIs. © 2012 IEEE.
date: 2012
official_url: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84873320883&doi=10.1109%2fPowerCon.2012.6401280&partnerID=40&md5=73abe2d6f61ce94267e154cac13f7d78
id_number: 10.1109/PowerCon.2012.6401280
full_text_status: none
publication: 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012
place_of_pub: Auckland
refereed: TRUE
isbn: 9781467328685
citation:   Khosravi, A. and Nahavandi, S. and Creighton, D. and Jaafar, J.  (2012) Wind farm power uncertainty quantification using a mean-variance estimation method.  In: UNSPECIFIED.