eprintid: 14339
rev_number: 2
eprint_status: archive
userid: 1
dir: disk0/00/01/43/39
datestamp: 2023-11-10 03:28:55
lastmod: 2023-11-10 03:28:55
status_changed: 2023-11-10 01:56:39
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Rabbani, M.B.A.
creators_name: Musarat, M.A.
creators_name: Alaloul, W.S.
creators_name: Rabbani, M.S.
creators_name: Maqsoom, A.
creators_name: Ayub, S.
creators_name: Bukhari, H.
creators_name: Altaf, M.
title: A Comparison Between Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) Based on Time Series Model for Forecasting Road Accidents
ispublished: pub
note: cited By 20
abstract: Road safety guidelines are not properly implemented and are not diverse enough to counter an annual increase in traffic volume. The mitigation techniques of road regulating bodies have failed in minimizing road accidents with the increase in road users. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide valuable insight to the facilitators and decision-making stakeholders by predicting the number of accidents because it is an existential hurdle toward the prevention of accidents. Therefore, this study aims to create temporal patterns to forecast the accident rates in Pakistan by utilizing univariate time series analysis such as seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ES) models. The results indicate that the ES model fitted better on accident data over the SARIMA model after calculating the lowest mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and normalized Bayesian information criterion. The study provides the guiding principles to implement the forecasted accident rates in the designing of roads to ensure the safety of end users which is a prime interest for accident rate collection agencies, decision-makers, design consultants and accident prevention departments. © 2021, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals.
date: 2021
publisher: Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
official_url: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85105432403&doi=10.1007%2fs13369-021-05650-3&partnerID=40&md5=ace3fc1adf6dde7cc75da9769482d623
id_number: 10.1007/s13369-021-05650-3
full_text_status: none
publication: Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering
volume: 46
number: 11
pagerange: 11113-11138
refereed: TRUE
issn: 2193567X
citation:   Rabbani, M.B.A. and Musarat, M.A. and Alaloul, W.S. and Rabbani, M.S. and Maqsoom, A. and Ayub, S. and Bukhari, H. and Altaf, M.  (2021) A Comparison Between Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) Based on Time Series Model for Forecasting Road Accidents.  Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 46 (11).  pp. 11113-11138.  ISSN 2193567X