Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

Hussain, M. and Yusof, K.W. and Mustafa, M.R.U. and Mahmood, R. and Jia, S. (2018) Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 134 (1-2). pp. 423-440. ISSN 0177798X

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Abstract

We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976�2005) and future (2011�2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8 increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7 increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10 increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 17
Uncontrolled Keywords: annual variation; climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; CMIP; ensemble forecasting; precipitation (climatology); rainforest; seasonal variation; trend analysis; tropical forest, Borneo; East Malaysia; Malaysia; Rajang Basin; Sarawak
Depositing User: Mr Ahmad Suhairi UTP
Date Deposited: 09 Nov 2023 16:36
Last Modified: 09 Nov 2023 16:36
URI: https://khub.utp.edu.my/scholars/id/eprint/9925

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