Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system

Idrus, A. and Fadhil Nuruddin, M. and Rohman, M.A. (2011) Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system. Expert Systems with Applications, 38 (3). pp. 1501-1508. ISSN 09574174

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Abstract

Contractors traditionally estimate cost contingency based on subjective judgment, such as 5-10 from the cost estimated by considering past similar project. However, such method does not have a sound basis and is difficult to justify or defend. Therefore, more objective methods for estimating project cost contingency have been presented. However, most of the methods still rely on formal modeling techniques, which is not easy to be applied in construction industry. This research proposes a method to estimate cost contingency using a flexible and rational approach that could accommodate contractors' subjective judgment based on risk analysis and fuzzy expert system concept. In this research, the proposed method involved the development of cost contingency model for building and infrastructure projects in Malaysia. According to the validation result, it was found that the predictions given by the system were within 20 accuracy compared to actual cost contingencies. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 86
Uncontrolled Keywords: Actual cost; Construction projects; Cost contingency; Estimate cost; Estimation models; Formal modeling; Fuzzy expert systems; Infrastructure project; Malaysia; Objective methods; Project cost; Validation results, Construction industry; Contractors; Costs; Expert systems; Problem solving; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk perception, Cost benefit analysis
Depositing User: Mr Ahmad Suhairi UTP
Date Deposited: 09 Nov 2023 15:50
Last Modified: 09 Nov 2023 15:50
URI: https://khub.utp.edu.my/scholars/id/eprint/2238

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