Construction Price Index Prediction through ARMA with Inflation Effect: Case of Thailand Construction Industry

Maqsoom, A. and Prasittisopin, L. and Musarat, M.A. and Ullah, F. and Alqahtani, F.K. (2024) Construction Price Index Prediction through ARMA with Inflation Effect: Case of Thailand Construction Industry. Buildings, 14 (5).

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Abstract

Over-budgeting due to inflation is a common phenomenon in the construction industry of both developed and developing countries. Inflation, with time changes, leaves an adverse effect on the project budget. Hence, this study aims to focus on the construction price index (CPI) behavior and inspect its correlation with inflation in Thailand�s construction industry as there has not been much work performed. The prediction of CPI was made from 2024 to 2028, relying on the data set from 2000 to 2023. The relationship between inflation and CPI categories helps in prediction by considering inflation as the independent variable and CPI (All Commodities, Lumber and Wood Products, Cement, and Iron Products) as the dependent variable that was incorporated in EViews to perform automated ARIMA forecasting. The correlation results show that out of four CPI, only Iron Products showed a significant relationship with inflation. For All Commodities, Lumber, and Wood Products, the predicted values were fluctuating, while for Cement and Iron Products, a clear seasonal pattern was observed. This prediction gives a direction to construction industry practitioners to make necessary adjustments to their budget estimation before signing the contract to overcome cost overrun obstruction. © 2024 by the authors.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 0
Uncontrolled Keywords: Budget control; Cements; Construction industry; Developing countries; Iron; Lumber, Adverse effect; Budget; Construction price index; Construction projects; Cost-overruns; Index predictions; Inflation; Price index; Thailand; Time change, Forecasting
Depositing User: Mr Ahmad Suhairi UTP
Date Deposited: 04 Jun 2024 14:19
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2024 14:19
URI: https://khub.utp.edu.my/scholars/id/eprint/19681

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